Iran’s Internal Crisis Deepens After Conflict with Israel

The 12-Day Confrontation Reveals Weaknesses and Heightens Ethnic Tensions

The brief June 2025 conflict between Iran and Israel, though not a full-blown war, has exposed significant vulnerabilities within Iran’s political structure. The Islamic Republic now faces a critical juncture, grappling with internal divisions and dwindling public support, marking a potential turning point for the nation.

Erosion of Power and Influence

The recent skirmish has demonstrably weakened the Iranian government, both in terms of “soft power” and military strength. The government’s long-held narrative of confronting the United States and Israel is no longer resonating with the public. Propaganda, previously effective, has lost its grip, especially among younger citizens who identify more with human rights.

The conflict highlighted significant deficiencies in Iran’s security and intelligence sectors, with senior commanders and crucial military infrastructure impacted.

Internal Dissatisfaction and Repression

Internal discontent is on the rise; surveys reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. Elections in late 2024 showed a historic low voter turnout, underscoring public frustration with the political process. Many Iranians blame the government’s policies for the war with Israel.

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The government has responded with its familiar tactic: repression. Over 700 arrests were made during and after the conflict, and ethnic minority regions, especially Kurdish areas, have been targeted.

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The government executed three Kurdish cross-border laborers, highlighting a pattern of ethnic scapegoating to maintain power. Amnesty International reports that, in 2023, Iran executed at least 834 people, the highest number since 2015 (Amnesty International).

Historical Context of Repression

Since the 1979 revolution, the Kurds, constituting roughly 12% to 15% of Iran’s population, have faced marginalization. The government, promoting a unifying ideology of Shiite Islam and Persian identity, has historically viewed ethnic minorities with suspicion.

The government launched a brutal military campaign in Kurdistan province, resulting in the destruction of villages and the killing of approximately 50,000 Iranian Kurds between 1979 and 1988. This created a militarized zone, a status that continues today.

The government continues to use the same strategy. The “Women, Life, Freedom” movement in 2022, which was led by Kurds, was met with harsh crackdowns. The main opposition groups have often been reluctant to acknowledge ethnic rights, further dividing Iranians.