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Israel’s Role in the iran Conflict: Regime Change or Existential Threat?
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As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, the precise role Israel envisions for itself in this conflict remains a subject of intense debate. While the stated primary objective is the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and rocket programs, hints from Israeli representatives suggest a broader ambition: regime change. However, these suggestions are often contradicted, creating a complex and ambiguous picture of Israel’s true intentions.
Conflicting Messages and Strategic Ambiguity
To its support base in the United States, notably those aligned with the Republican Party, Israel is promoting a vision of a future, pro-American Iran. This narrative, as reported by The Times, aims to garner support for the ongoing military actions. Prime Minister benjamin Netanyahu, in a video address to the “people of Iran” delivered in English, urged Iranians to “unite around their flag and past heritage, defending their freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.” He further stated to Fox News that regime change “can certainly be the result because the Iranian regime is very weak.”
Did You Know? the name given to the military operation, “Rising Lion,” is seen by some in Washington as a nod to Reza pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of iran, and a symbol of potential monarchical restoration.
the Iranian Voices and the Question of Legitimacy
While Pahlavi is respected in Israeli circles in America, most analysts doubt his level of support within Iran itself. Still, “it is indeed useful for Israel to have Iranian voices in support of his attack.” This support provides a crucial layer of perceived legitimacy, distinguishing the current conflict from previous actions against non-state actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthi rebels in Yemen .
The Existential Threat Narrative
Within Israel, the focus remains firmly on what most citizens perceive as an existential threat: Iran’s nuclear program and long-range missiles.Officials consistently emphasize that the war’s objectives are military, not political, despite repeated mentions of the threat posed by supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Israeli television. Josi Kupevasser, a former head of research in Israeli military intelligence, stated that while regime change would be a welcome outcome, it is indeed not the primary intention of the hostilities.
The Complexities of Iranian Public opinion
Assessing public opinion in Iran’s hybrid regime, where power is shared between technocratic and religious authorities under the Supreme Leader, is notoriously tough. While the regime is undoubtedly unpopular with significant segments of the population, particularly the middle class and ethnic/religious minorities, there is no evidence to suggest that its ability to suppress public opposition has been significantly weakened. The protests of 2022,known as “Woman,Life,Freedom,” demonstrated the regime’s continued capacity for forceful suppression.
The Future: Military Objectives and Potential Outcomes
Kupevasser suggests that the Israeli military believes it can destroy Iran’s nuclear program,even the facilities located in deep bunkers like Fordow. However, this task would be significantly easier with the involvement of the United States, given their capacity to deploy bunker-busting bombs. While the U.S. involvement remains uncertain, it could perhaps lead to a more decisive outcome. In the more likely scenario, Israel’s strikes will continue until Prime Minister Netanyahu deems sufficient damage has been inflicted to declare victory, after wich the Iranian regime will likely recover and resume its activities.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on statements from both Israeli and Iranian officials, but also analyze the actions on the ground. Discrepancies between words and deeds often reveal the true strategic objectives.
Key Metrics: Israel-Iran Conflict
| Metric | Description | Source |
|---|---|---|
| military Spending (Iran) | Estimated $22 Billion (2023) | SIPRI |
| Military Spending (Israel) | Estimated $23.4 Billion (2023) | SIPRI |
| Nuclear Facilities (Iran) | natanz, Fordow, Arak | IAEA |
Israel-Iran Conflict: A Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | Iran launches ballistic missiles at israel
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