Dutch Politics Face Instability as VVD Strategy Backfires
Excluding Far-Right Could Cost Center-Right Dominance
The Netherlands’ political landscape is bracing for turbulence as the VVD party’s decision to exclude the PVV from coalition talks may jeopardize its future electoral prospects. Experts suggest this move could empower the CDA and potentially lead to the VVD’s worst election results in decades.
Shifting Voter Behavior
Voting patterns in parliamentary elections differ significantly from other types of polls. Turnout is notably higher—approaching 80%, compared to under 60% in provincial council elections—and voters are more keenly aware of the potential impact of their choices on who will lead the country and what government will be formed.
Voter Sentiment on Parties
Recent research indicates a divergence between voters’ initial impressions and their ultimate preferences. While the CDA currently leads in terms of voters giving the party a chance (41%), the PVV gains prominence when voters are limited to selecting only one preferred party (33%). This suggests a degree of fluidity within the electorate.
Adding up the chances given to all parties reveals that voters collectively consider more than 3.5 parties viable options, highlighting the potential for rapid shifts in support, as seen in the last election with the PVV’s late surge to 25% of the vote.
The Central Question of Governance
Unlike previous elections focused on the prime ministerial candidate, the current debate centers on the composition of a viable government. While the biggest party doesn’t automatically secure the premiership—as demonstrated in 2023—the prospect of a functioning coalition holds significant sway with voters.
The key question now appears to be: “Will VVD, CDA and GroenLinks/PvdA get more than 75 seats and who of these parties will be the largest?”
The PVV aims to prevent a GroenLinks/PvdA-led government by securing votes, while the VVD, CDA, and GroenLinks/PvdA each strive to emerge as the dominant force.
VVD’s Vulnerable Position
Historically, parties like the CDA could readily form governments with either the left or the right, offering voters a clear path. However, the VVD’s exclusion of the PVV creates ambiguity. Forming a government without both the PVV and GroenLinks/PvdA would require securing at least 20 additional seats from smaller parties—a significant challenge.
By rejecting a broader coalition approach—including the PVV—the VVD risks a protracted and complex government formation process, leaving it in a precarious position. This ambiguity, excluding the PVV and rejecting GroenLinks/PvdA, could prove to be the VVD’s Achilles’ heel in these elections.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics Netherlands, voter turnout in the 2023 general election was 85.8%, demonstrating a high level of civic engagement. (CBS Netherlands, 2023)
Potential Outcomes and Systemic Concerns
If the PVV remains excluded, a government consisting of VVD, CDA, and GroenLinks/PvdA is the most likely outcome, potentially requiring a fourth party to achieve a majority. If the government’s composition becomes apparent before the election, the VVD’s chances of becoming the largest party diminish.
The current political system is facing increasing scrutiny, with calls for reform to address instability and indecisiveness. The short lifespan of recent governments—less than 1.5 years after the 2021 elections and less than one year after the 2023 elections—underscores the need for change.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the Netherlands’ political future, as voters weigh their options and the VVD attempts to navigate a challenging electoral landscape.
